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Top 5 factors that will decide market direction this week
Updated on 11 June 2018

Last week, RBI raised the repo rate by 25 bps for the first time since last 4 years in a
preventive move due signs of a possible spike in inflation and improving growth numbers.

On Friday, the BSE Sensex closed 19.41 points down at 35,443, while NSE’s Nifty50 ended
lower at 10,767. On a weekly basis, the 30-share pack of BSE gained 0.61 per cent while the
50-share Nifty added 0.66 per cent.

Oil and monsoon
Crude price movement, progress of monsoon, rupee movement against the US dollar and
inflows to equities from FPIs (foreign) and DIIs (domestic) are key factors that are likely to
influence the market in the coming week.

Domestic macro numbers to set the mood
The government is expected to announce industrial production data (IIP) for April 2018 on
Tuesday, June 12, 2018. The index of industrial production (IIP) grew 4.4 per cent in March
against a downward revised 7 per cent increase in the previous month.

This apart, inflation data based on wholesale price index (WPI) for May 2018 will be out on
Thursday, June 14. Annual wholesale price inflation in April rose to 3.18 per cent from a year
earlier, higher than a 2.47 per cent rise in March.

US Fed likely to raise rate
The rate-setting panel of the US Federal Reserve FOMC is slated to meet on Tuesday and
Wednesday (June 12- June 13) to decide on monetary policy, with results due on
Wednesday. As per market analyst , the Fed looks all set to raise interest rates for a second
time this year and the seventh since December 2015.

ECB, BoJ rate decisions
The European Central Bank's policy decision is due on Thursday (June 14) where it is likely to signal that its 2.55 trillion euro bond purchase scheme will end this year. If the bond buying ends, rate hikes can’t be far behind. Investors are starting to price in a possible first match be in the summer of 2019, with some even suggesting the bank’s -0.4 per cent deposit rate could be back up to zero by the end of next year

G-7 summit ends in disarray
The two-day G-7 summit (June 8-June 9) held in Quebec City of Canada ended in disarray as US President Donald Trump remained isolated from its allies on trade tariffs.